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Alright, alright, alright. AppLovin (APP). Let's talk about it. Because apparently, I whif... Alright, alright, alright. AppLovin (APP). Let's talk about it. Because apparently, I whiffed. Big time. Last time I checked, the "app stock price" was heading south, and I was sharpening my knives for another takedown. Now? Q3 earnings are out, and suddenly, it's all sunshine and rainbows.
The Numbers Game
Sixty-eight percent revenue surge year-over-year? Seriously? Free cash flow nearly doubled? I'm staring at these numbers like they're written in Klingon. Did someone slip something into my coffee? Or did AppLovin suddenly discover the secret to eternal growth?
And then there's the $3.2 billion share repurchase authorization. Three. Point. Two. BILLION. That’s not just a vote of confidence; it’s a freakin’ declaration of war against the shorts. It's like they're saying, "Yeah, we're printing money, and we're gonna use it to buy back our own stock because we think it's undervalued. What are you gonna do about it?"
Management's Q4 guidance? Upbeat. Of course it is. Why wouldn't it be? At this point, I'm half-expecting them to announce they've solved world hunger and invented teleportation.
But wait a minute... "upbeat guidance"? Let's translate that from corporate speak. What they really mean is: "We're gonna try to keep the momentum going, so please, for the love of God, keep buying our stock so we can cash in on those sweet, sweet executive bonuses." I ain't buying it, not completely.
My Bearish Past Haunts Me
Okay, look. I’ll admit it. My previous bearish calls on AppLovin? They haven't aged well. At all. It's like I bet on the tortoise in a race against a cheetah, and the cheetah strapped on a rocket pack. As this AppLovin: Q3 Earnings Made Me Look Bad (Rating Upgrade) - Seeking Alpha article points out, the Q3 earnings have caused some analysts to re-evaluate their positions.
I thought I was being smart, doing my due diligence, uncovering the "truth" about this overhyped tech company. But maybe I was just being… stubborn? Blinded by my own biases? It's a humbling experience, let me tell you. Especially when your readers are gleefully pointing out your mistakes.
I mean, I’ve been doing this investing thing for 13 years. I thought I had a decent handle on things. I pride myself on thorough research, a long-term perspective, and uncovering those under-the-radar stocks that are poised to explode. But AppLovin? It exploded alright, right in my face.
But here's the question that keeps nagging at me: Is this sustainable? Can AppLovin really keep up this breakneck pace? Or is this just a temporary sugar rush fueled by some fleeting trend in the app market? I don't know. And frankly, that uncertainty pisses me off.
You know what else pisses me off? This whole "AI revolution" nonsense. Everyone's slapping "AI" on their company name and suddenly they're worth billions. It's the new blockchain, I swear. Remember when everyone was adding "blockchain" to their name and the stock price went to the moon? Give me a break.
The Skeptic's Dilemma
So, where does that leave us? I'm sitting here, eating crow, while AppLovin's stock price is probably doing the Macarena. I still have my doubts. I still think there's a hefty dose of hype baked into this valuation. But I can't deny the numbers. The numbers are… impressive.
Maybe I'm just too cynical. Maybe I'm too stuck in my old ways. Maybe I need to adjust my thinking. Or maybe, just maybe, this is all one giant, elaborate pump-and-dump scheme, and I'm just too early to the party.
Did I Jump the Gun?
It's possible, I guess. In the end, this whole thing feels like a cosmic joke at my expense. I'm not saying AppLovin is a bad company, necessarily. I'm just saying I don't fully understand it, and that makes me deeply uncomfortable. Time to re-evaluate, I guess.